153. Bernoulli

153.1. Bernoulli Trial (Binomial trial)

A Bernoulli trial is a random experiment with exactly two possible outcomes: “success” and “failure,” where the probability of success (𝑝) remains constant across trials.

𝑃(success)=𝑝

𝑃(failure)=𝑞

𝑝=1𝑞

𝑞=1𝑝

𝑝+𝑞=1

Example
  • Flipping a fair coin where “heads” is considered a success (𝑝=0.5) and “tails” a failure (1𝑝=0.5).

  • Rolling a die and checking if the outcome is a 6 (success) or not (failure). If the die is fair, the probability of success is 𝑝=16 and the probability of failure is 1𝑝=56.

  • Checking whether a shipment arrives on time (success) or is delayed (failure). If historical data shows that a shipment has a 90% chance of arriving on time, the probability of success (𝑝) is 0.9, and the probability of failure (1𝑝) is 0.1.

153.1.1. Odds

Odds for (𝑜𝑓)

𝑜𝑓=𝑝𝑞=𝑝1𝑝=1𝑞𝑞

Odds against (𝑜𝑎)

𝑜𝑎=𝑞𝑝=1𝑝𝑝=𝑞1𝑞𝑜𝑓=1𝑜𝑎𝑜𝑎=1𝑜𝑓𝑜𝑓𝑜𝑎=1